Lincoln Condominiums

U.S. Treasury securities bounced back from Friday's sell-off, putting up some good numbers on Monday. Bond traders are cautiously optimistic about Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's speech tonight in front of the Economics Club of New York. The chairman will discuss the yield curve and monetary policy, and there is hope that he might tip his hand regarding further interest rate hikes. It is more likely that he will repeat that rate hikes will remain data-dependent, if he talks about them at all.

A 25-basis-point rate increase is carved in stone for the March 28 meeting, but beyond that the jury is out. Last week the markets turned bullish on the prospect the Fed would halt its rate hike program after the end-of-month meeting. Buying in Treasuries sent prices up and yields, which move in the opposite direction, down. There was not sufficient movement in yields, however, to send mortgage rates, which are based on Treasury yields, down more than a few basis points.

The February index of leading economic indicators, or LEI, dipped for the first time in five months, falling 0.2 percent. This, however, was less than the 0.3 percent decline that was predicted. The January number was revised downward, now showing a 0.5 percent increase versus the original 1.1 percent gain. Leading indicators purport to look at the economy six months ahead, but the report is predictable as it is based on previously released economic data, and it is not well regarded by the markets.

Wall Street takes a break

The equity markets took a breather on Monday after volatile, but successful sessions last week. Like bonds, the equity markets are waiting to hear from Bernanke tonight, and could move tomorrow. Even a sharp drop in oil prices couldn't stir equities today. Oil plunged $2.32 to $60.45 a barrel -- this ahead of the shift from April to May futures.

The Dow Jones industrials featured a couple of winning stocks, such as Wal-Mart, which rose on news that it is hiring and will open 15 to 20 stores in China. Microsoft also added more than 1 percent, but other gains were moderate to modest. Once again GM led the loss list, sliding 1.7 percent on continuing concerns about its revised loss announced last week. American Express and McDonald's each shed a hair over 1 percent.

The Nasdaq composite climbed into positive territory on opening and remained there all day. Dell added 2.3 percent on news that it would double its workforce in India, and business software giant Oracle was up prior to its third-quarter results due after the bell. Rambus Inc. rose 4 percent on a new licensing deal with Fujitsu Ltd. of Japan and Micron Technology also rose, helping to push the semiconductor index up. The Amex technology index rose, and the Internet sector and airlines also posted good gains.

As of 4 p.m. EST:

The Dow Jones industrial index closed down 5.12 points (-0.05 percent) to 11, 274.53; the Nasdaq composite gained 7.63 points (+0.33 percent) to 2,314.11, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 2.17 points (-0.17 percent) to 1,305.08.

The 30-year Treasury bond closed up 10/32 in price with the yield falling to 4.69 percent, from 4.71 percent on Friday.

The 10-year Treasury note closed up 4/32 in price with the yield falling to 4.64 percent, from 4.67 percent on Friday.

The five-year Treasury note closed up 2/32 in price with the yield falling to 4.60 percent, from 4.61 percent on Friday.

The two-year Treasury note closed down 1/32 in price with the yield holding at 4.64 percent.

At 4 p.m. EST, average mortgage rates (zero discount points) based on rates collected nationwide were:

The 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage at 6.1 percent, down from 6.112 percent on Friday.

The 15-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage at 5.71 percent, down from 5.717 percent on Friday.

Coming up:

The February Producer Price Index, or PPI, will be out Tuesday. Due to the prior release of the Consumer Price Index, the PPI will contain little in the way of surprises, as increases in the PPI work their way into consumer prices. In February, however, there was little evidence of inflation at the retail level. Analysts are expecting producer prices to fall 0.3 percent, while the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise 0.2 percent. In January producer prices rose 0.3 percent, while the core rate climbed 0.4 percent.

There are also two weekly surveys of nationwide retail sales on tap, but they will have little effect on the markets.

Today's decline in Treasury yields could impact some mortgage rates - those on the cusp of moving lower. Those so affected could edge down. But it will take sustained buying in Treasuries to significantly lower mortgage rates.

Carolyn Siegel

Carolyn@interest.com

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